Our football betting expert offers his Wales vs Poland predictions and betting tips ahead of their Euro 2024 decider this Tuesday evening.
A place at Euro 2024 is at stake when Wales host Poland in Cardiff on Tuesday and both teams head into this play-off final in confident mood after wide-margin semi-final wins.
Wales vs Poland Betting Tips
- Draw @ 2/1 with bet365
- Both teams to score @ 1/1 with bet365
- Double – Robert Lewandowski to score and Chris Mepham to be booked @ 7.25/1 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Wales made light work of beating Finland 4-1 on Thursday, while Poland went one better in a 5-1 victory over Estonia in Warsaw.
Wales have home advantage for the crucial clash and have a strong record in the Welsh capital, but they will have to overcome a poor head-to-head record against the Poles to book their ticket to the finals.
Extra-time could be required in Cardiff
Wales qualified for the 2022 World Cup finals with a play-off success against Ukraine in Cardiff and are aiming to repeat the trick by beating Poland on Tuesday to reach the Euro 2024 finals.
Confidence should be high in the home camp after Thursday’s impressive 4-1 home success over Finland, which was achieved with goals from David Brooks, Neco Williams, Brennan Johnson and Daniel James.
Indeed, Wales will not fear taking on many teams in Cardiff after winning three and drawing two of their last five home games and as awful as their 4-2 defeat by Armenia last June was, it was the only time they have been beaten in their last 16 home European qualifiers.
Wales finished four points adrift of Turkey and Croatia in their group, but claimed four points against them in Cardiff and impressed in Thursday’s outing.
Poland had a troubled qualifying campaign, sacking manager Fernando Santos after less than a year in charge following a 2-0 defeat to Albania, but new coach Michal Probierz has turned things around.
Probierz is unbeaten in five games since taking over, although he has yet to enjoy a notable success on the road with a 2-0 win in the Faroe Islands being followed by four home games.
Thursday’s 5-1 rout of Estonia was made easier when visiting defender Maksim Paskotsi was sent off after just 27 minutes with Poland leading 1-0.
And the hosts will face a tough test against a team who last missed a major tournament at the 2014 World Cup and have reached every European finals since 2004.
Poland beat Wales in both of their Nations League meetings in 2022, winning 2-1 in Wroclaw and 1-0 in Cardiff and have won the teams’ last six encounters.
There are some talented performers in the Polish side, including goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny, defender Jan Bednarek, midfielder Piotr Zielinksi and strikers Karol Swiderski, along with talismanic frontman Robert Lewandowski.
This should be a much more competitive game than either team’s semi-final and it may well take more than 90 minutes to settle it.
Wales vs Poland Tip 1: Draw @ 2/1 with bet365
Attacking talent on both sides should lead to goals
The win-or-bust nature of this tie should see both teams taking a positive approach and that makes sense given that they both have more talent going forward than defensive strength.
Goals for both teams have been a feature of recent Wales games, with both sides scoring in each of their last four fixtures and that could well be the case on Tuesday too.
Poland have scored in all five of their games under Probierz, but have conceded in three of their last four matches.
The Poles also have defensive injury issues after Matty Cash lasted only 11 minutes as a substitute against Estonia.
Wales vs Poland Tip 2: Both teams to score @ 1/1 with bet365
Star man can rise to the occasion
Poland scored five goals in their last game without Lewandowki getting on the scoresheet, but their star man has hardly been out of form and could rise to the occasion for his nation in Cardiff.
Przemyslaw Frankowski, Zielinski, Jakub Piotrowski and Sebastian Szymanski were all on the scoresheet against Estonia, who also contributed an own goal, but Lewandowski remains their most likely scorer.
Lewandowski netted in his two most recent outings for Barcelona – a 3-1 Champions League win over Napoli and a 3-0 La Liga success over Atletico Madrid – and he has 23 goals for club and country this season.
Pair a Lewandowski goal with a card for Wales defender Chris Mepham, who could be in for a tough night.
Mepham was booked against Finland and also cautioned in his previous international game against Armenia.
Wales vs Poland Tip 3: Double – Robert Lewandowski anytime goalscorer and Chris Mepham to be booked @ 7.25/1 with bet365
