More than 100,000 prisoners could be held in jails in England and Wales within five years, according to government estimates. The prison population is projected to increase to between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029, with a central estimate of 100,800, figures published on Thursday show. The Ministry of Justice said the potential rise is driven by factors including “continued growth” in suspects being charged and prosecuted, more cases coming to court, the “rising levels of people on remand” and “changes in sentencing policy and behaviour to keep the most serious offenders in prison for longer”. It comes after Whitehall’s spending watchdog warned earlier this week that Government plans to boost prison capacity could fall short by thousands of cell spaces within two years and cost the taxpayer billions of pounds more than anticipated. Since September the Government has been freeing thousands of inmates early in a bid to cut jail overcrowding by temporarily reducing the proportion of sentences which some prisoners must serve behind bars in England and Wales from 50% to 40%. But prisons are still expected to reach critical capacity again by July. MoJ figures show there were 86,059 adult prisoners behind bars in England and Wales on Monday, slightly higher than the 86,038 recorded at the beginning of last week. The so-called operational capacity for English and Welsh men and women’s prisons is 88,852, indicating there is now cell space for 2,793 criminals. The latest data means the prison population is only 2.8% lower than when the number of inmates being held hit a new record high of 88,521 on September 6, PA news agency analysis shows. An additional 1,350 cell spaces tend to always be kept free above the overall operational capacity of the prison estate in England and Wales as a contingency measure so jails can cope with a sudden influx of inmates or change in the make-up of the prison population, according to the MoJ.
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