Sports Mole previews Sunday’s friendly clash between Wales and Australia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
The final curtain of another gripping weekend of Autumn Nations Series action will come from the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, where Wales will be playing host to Australia.
Wales suffered a painful defeat at this venue to Fiji last weekend, while Australia’s against-the-odds victory over England saw them move up to eighth in the world ranking.
Match preview
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It feels like dark times for Welsh rugby at the moment, as they enter this match following their first-ever loss to Fiji on home soil, a result which equalled the nation’s record losing international streak of 10 successive Test defeats.
Perhaps unsurprisingly then, Warren Gatland had to face plenty of questions about his future throughout the build-up to this match, as he has now posted a record of just six wins in 22 Tests since returning for his second stint in charge of the Dragons.
Gatland has remained transparent about the side’s issues and the process behind the scenes, but it does feel like a loss here could mark the beginning of the end for the Wales boss.
Indeed, beating the Wallabies will go a long way to alleviating the pressure for everyone involved with the side, but Wales have only managed to overcome Australia twice in their last 11 Tests here in Cardiff, while they also suffered a 2-0 series defeat Down Under earlier this summer.
Unfortunately from a Welsh perspective, the future paints a fairly grim picture as well, with the world champions Springboks arriving in Cardiff next week and a Six Nations opener against France scheduled early next year.
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As mentioned, the Wallabies dealt Wales two defeats during their winless 2024, with Joe Schmidt and his revamped coaching team partially avenging their humiliating 2023 World Cup loss.
Like their opponents, Australia are in the midst of a major revamp and have also gone through plenty of pain in doing so, as we saw most recently in the Rugby Championship when they were the recipients of the unwanted Wooden Spoon.
Last week felt like a massive breakthrough for Australia, though, as they pulled off a 42-37 victory over England at Twickenham Stadium, marking their first victory at the venue in almost a decade.
However, while that result may have boosted morale around the camp, it is still too early to draw any conclusions, as the last time the Wallabies won a match they followed it up with a record-breaking loss during back-to-back Tests against Argentina in September.
Still, the visitors have all the momentum coming into this match, and if they can halt the Welsh drive, they have vastly more attacking quality at their disposal than their hosts and can punish them out wide.
Wales form (all competitions):
Australia form (all competitions):
Team News
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Gatland has made four changes to the side that lost to Fiji last week, including Tom Rogers and Ellis Bevan being brought into the starting lineup in place of Mason Grady and Tomos Williams, respectively.
Jac Morgan is set to feature in his first test since the World Cup in place of Taine Plumtree, while the front five remain the same with Adam Beard and Will Rowlands forming the lock pairing, while Archie Griffin, Dewi Lake and Gareth Thomas make up the front row.
Schmidt made a bold decision for this match, opting to drop Man of the Match in England Joseph Suaalii to the bench to make way for Samu Kerevi, who will partner Len Ikitau in midfield.
Dylan Pietsch was ruled out of this match with a calf injury and he is replaced on the left wing by Max Jorgensen, while Nic White has been brought in to form the halves pairing with Noah Lolesio in place of Jake Gordon.
Wales starting lineup: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Blair Murray, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake (c) 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Christ Tshiunza, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Eddie James
Australia starting lineup: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Max Jorgensen, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Seru Uru, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (c), 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Joseph-Aukuso
We say: Wales 21-32 Australia
Australia have had a tough year but they will enter this match full of optimism after that morale-boosting victory over England last week. Wales, on the other hand, are in freefall right now and are not showing many signs of an imminent recovery.
The Wallabies have a solid record in Cardiff in recent times and we feel they will hand Wales a record-breaking 11th consecutive Test loss in this one.
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