Sports Mole previews Saturday’s friendly clash between Wales and South Africa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Wales and South Africa will sign off the 2024 rugby season this weekend when they lock horns in the Autumn Nations Series at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday evening.
South Africa are set to end the year as the number-one ranked team in world rugby, while Wales will finish outside the top 10 and potentially winless in over 14 months.
Match preview
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Wales could really use a win to end the year having failed to manage a victory in 2024, but facing the four-time world champions and Rugby Championship winners does bode well for their chances.
It would be an incredible way for the Dragons to sign off the year if they were to win this match, but most would agree that expectations are not high after seeing their performances against Fiji and Australia over the last couple of weeks.
Warren Gatland‘s side were dealt their first defeat on home soil 24-19 by the Pacific Islanders on November 10, which was their 10th consecutive loss since beating Georgia at the World Cup last October.
Regardless of who one may support, it was genuinely tough to watch Gatland’s press conference last week following the 52-20 thumping his side were handed by the Wallabies, where the majority of the questions he faced were around whether he is considering quitting his post as head coach after this final match of the year.
To his credit, the Welsh boss has handled the criticism remarkably well and has remained open about the issues the side faces and the ambition moving forward, though with a six-day turnaround and with the world champs coming to town, it is tough to see the hosts coming out on top in this one.
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Meanwhile, South Africa come into this match off the back of a thrilling battle against England at Twickenham Stadium last week, where they managed to secure a 29-20 victory in a match that hung in the balance for the best part of the 80 minutes.
However, as has become almost customary, the Springboks managed to shift up a gear when it mattered most and found a way to hold off a charging English attack late on to lock down their spot at the top of the world standings.
Heading into 2025, South Africa look set up for another big year, with Rassie Erasmus clearly taking care of his squad depth by integrating plenty of new blood, fielding more than 50 players over the course of this season.
For the most part, the new faces in the famous Green and Gold have fitted seamlessly into the squad, with the team conceding just two defeats in 12 Tests this year, both of which were by just a single point.
The Springboks have made winning ugly fashionable again, something that Wales were known for in the past, and given their form at the moment, it is not surprising to see the Southern Hemisphere giants showing up as massive favourites to end the year with a big win.
Wales form (all competitions):
South Africa form (all competitions):
Team News
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In what many feel could be his last match in charge, Gatland has made wholesale changes to his squad this week with Rio Dyer, Sam Costelow, Christ Tshiunza and Taine Plumtree all being brought into the starting lineup.
We could also see a potential debut for the the impressive Gloucester lock Freddie Thomas, who is named on the bench, while his clubmate Josh Hathaway also joins the reserves for this weekend’s match.
Ox Nche was expected to keep his place in the front row despite sustaining a cut above his knee last week, but Erasmus made a somewhat surprising decision to leave the in-form prop out of the matchday squad, opting for Wilco Louw instead.
As a result, Thomas du Toit was initially named as the starting tighthead, but he will now move to the loosehead side of the scrum, with Johan Grobbelaar positioned between the two props in place of Bongi Mbonambi.
Wales starting lineup: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Christ Tshiunza, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Eddie James, 23 Josh Hathaway
South Africa starting lineup: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Thomas du Toit
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Handre Pollard
We say: Wales 16-52 South Africa
There is a massive gulf in class between these two sides at this moment, and we feel that there is very little that Wales will be able to do to avoid a heavy defeat at the hands of the mighty Springboks in this one.
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