Two of the biggest struggling Tier 1 teams of 2024 will meet for the third time in 14 months, not long after fighting two tightly contested matches Down Under in June.
Under-fire head coach Warren Gatland has been here before in his first lengthy stint of Wales and he told the press during the week that he has no intention of stepping down despite the team going through a national record of 10 consecutive Test defeats.
The lowest of their lows was endured just last weekend when they lost at home to Fiji for the first time in their history, whilst Australia ended a nearly decade-long drought at Twickenham albeit in fortuitous circumstances with a ball-handling error dropping into the hands of Andrew Kellaway.
Wales have since dropped to their lowest ever World Rugby ranking (11th) and start this autumn international about 5.5 points behind, according to most rugby betting sites.
The defensive struggles of both teams have convinced us that this will be higher scoring than the bookmakers have forecast, and in addition to our best bet we have selected one try scorer from each team to make your value treble.
The Panel’s Predictions For Wales v Australia:
Wales Vs Australia Odds: Two Of Tier 1’s Worst Defences Collide
Betting apps anticipate a 28-22 win to Australia or thereabouts, which would be a good result for both teams defensively given how they’ve been going in 2024.
Only Japan’s average of 36 points conceded per game in 2024 is worse than that of both Wales (30 points) and Australia (32 points).
That statistic has contributed to both teams averaging more than 50.5 total points per match this year, including the 36-28 win to the Wallabies the last time these teams met.
The Welsh are out to avoid making unwanted history and potentially even save the job of their head coach, but anything close to their repeat of last week’s 32 missed tackles will leave the door wide open for Australia to pile on the points again, just as they did last week with 42 in the victory over England.
Seven of Wales’ 10 consecutive losses finished under the pre-match total points handicap and this could be an overcorrection from the moneymen in response.
The Panel Prediction 1: £10 Get £40 in Bonuses” data-brand_id=”924″ data-brand_product_id=”342″ data-offer_id=”949″ data-site_offer_id=”1215″ data-gtm=”pagetext Unibet” data-cta_hash=”cf88e52a-94bf-4aa6-bca7-eb1e676c013c” >Over 50.5 total points – 1.90 @ Unibet
Wales Vs Australia Betting: Hooker Could Be Key To Welsh Win
Wales’ newest rugby union captain already has two tries against the Wallabies to his name, registering two of his seven international tries in the two-Test series away to Australia earlier this year.
He found the line in two of his three starts in that international window and went into this one with tries in his last two club appearances for Ospreys (against Edinburgh and the Bulls).
It was the rolling maul that was one of Wales’ most successful avenues of scoring in the two mid-year games against Australia and Dewi Lake was the beneficiary on two occasions whilst they were also awarded a penalty try on a separate occasion.
That may therefore be an area that Gatland looks to target once again in a bid to turn around his side’s fortunes.
The Panel’s Prediction 2: Dewi Lake To Score A Try – 5/2 With SpreadEx
Wales Vs Australia Prediction: Running (Kell)Away At Blistering Pace
Dynamic Australian back rower Andrew Kellaway has a knack of stringing together try-scoring appearances both at franchise and international level.
After he scored late in last weekend’s win over England, he could be a chance to score against Wales for the first time since 2021.
Kellaway admitted he questioned his professional future after a miserable World Cup and the demise of the Melbourne Rebels, but he appears to be growing into a second coming following his signing with the Waratahs.
His switch from full back responsibilities to the wing has helped. He was in the right place at the right time against England last weekend to show great pace after 75 minutes to get away from their defensive line when it mattered most.
Gaps in the Welsh line should present him with the opportunity to get on the scoresheet again.
The Panel Prediction 3: Andrew Kellaway To Score A Try – 13/8 With SpreadEx
