Sports Mole previews Monday’s Nations League clash between Wales and Montenegro, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Having let a two-goal lead slip last time out, Wales will be intent on claiming maximum points as they continue their UEFA Nations League campaign against Montenegro on Monday.
The Dragons are still strong contenders for promotion from League B Group 4, but their latest visitors to Cardiff City Stadium seem relegation bound and are yet to pick up a point.
Match preview
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Although Wales surrendered a 2-0 half-time advantage to draw Friday’s Nations League contest in Reykjavik, they still left Laugardalsvollur grateful not to see their unbeaten start to Group 4 ended by Iceland.
Goals from Brennan Johnson and Harry Wilson had put the Dragons in charge at the break, but inspired substitute Logi Tomasson scored and then forced Danny Ward into conceding an unfortunate own-goal equaliser within the space of three second-half minutes.
The hosts then struck Ward’s woodwork twice in the closing stages, so Wales boss Craig Bellamy was not too downbeat about coming away with a point that tops his team’s tally up to five so far.
That leaves them just two behind halfway leaders Turkey, with a first-place finish next month guaranteeing promotion and second spot good enough to secure a playoff.
After stepping in to replace Rob Page, Bellamy began his reign in September, with a goalless draw against Turkey being followed by a 2-1 victory in Montenegro; a repeat of the latter result back in Cardiff would leave Wales well placed heading into November’s finale.
The Dragons have won two and lost two of their previous meetings with Monday’s visitors, and the sole win throughout their last nine Nations League matches was that success in Podgorica five weeks ago, when they went two goals up within two minutes and 27 seconds.
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Following back-to-back defeats last month, Montenegro hoped to belatedly get off the mark on Friday night, but they were beaten 1-0 by Turkey in Samsun, where the hosts fired in 29 shots and had nearly two-thirds of the ball.
As a result, Robert Prosinecki‘s men stayed stuck to the bottom of Group 4 without a point, so it is now reaching make-or-break time if they are to avoid relegation to League C.
Facing a four-point deficit to third-placed Iceland, the Brave Falcons have three games left to turn things around, finishing off with a pair of home fixtures in mid-November.
After winning their first two games of 2024, Montenegro have now suffered five consecutive defeats – their worst run since becoming an independent football nation back some 17 years ago.
Prosinecki must quickly find a solution, otherwise pulling off a similar escape to that seen during the 2022-23 campaign – when they survived by the skin of their teeth via goal difference – will no longer be possible.
Situated 45 places below Wales in the latest FIFA world rankings, Montenegro are not expected to prevail in the Welsh capital, but they have caused several upsets throughout their brief history.
Wales Nations League form:
Wales form (all competitions):
Montenegro Nations League form:
Montenegro form (all competitions):
Team News
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Always likely to make changes after Friday’s trip to Iceland, Craig Bellamy will have two forced upon him when Wales play their fourth Nations League fixture.
Brennan Johnson – who has recently scored six goals in as many games for Tottenham Hotspur – and Rennes midfielder Jordan James will both be ruled out by suspension, joining Ethan Ampadu, Dan James and captain Aaron Ramsey on the sidelines.
After reversing his international retirement, 34-year-old Joe Allen was not involved last time out, but the absence of James could hasten his return to the starting lineup; David Brooks and Josh Sheehan are alternative options.
Supporting lone striker Kieffer Moore, Fulham forward Harry Wilson has been directly involved in seven goals from his last eight internationals, scoring in both of the last two.
Meanwhile, Montenegro are expected to retain their front line of captain Stevan Jovetic – who is just six appearances away from becoming his country’s record caps-holder – and Lecce striker Nikola Krstovic, despite scoring just one goal in three group games so far.
Stefan Mugosa and Preston North End forward Milutin Osmajic – the latter of whom was called up despite being banned for eight EFL matches for biting an opponent – both appeared from the bench in Turkey.
At the back, vice-captain and defensive rock Stefan Savic has endured an injury-plagued start to his time at Turkish Super Lig club Trabzonspor and is still unavailable.
Wales possible starting lineup:
Ward; Roberts, Rodon, Davies, Williams; Sheehan, Cooper; Burns, Wilson, Thomas; Moore
Montenegro possible starting lineup:
Mijatovic; Marusic, Vujacic, Sipcic, Radunovic; Bakic, Vukotic, Jankovic; Krstovic, Camaj; Jovetic
We say: Wales 1-0 Montenegro
Having shown signs of promise under new management, Wales should have sufficient firepower to see off a Montenegro side that has struggled to score goals this year.
The hosts were impressive in their last run-out at Cardiff City Stadium, falling just short of beating Group 4 leaders Turkey, so they are more than a match for ailing opponents.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
